Could Kara Goucher win for the women; Ryan Hall for the men? Sure, in theory, but it's unlikely. Who was the last American to win the Boston Marathon for either the women or men? And WHEN? For two Americans to win the Boston Marathon this year would be an absolute boon to American distance running. If there's any year in which it could happen, 2009 would be the one.
Goucher ran a 2:25 at the New York City Marathon in November 2008. Can she better that time? I think so. According to her coach, Alberto Salazar, Kara is fitter now than she was going into NYC. We'll see how she handles the pressure to pull off at least an equal performance. So many fans of American distance running are pulling for her to win. If any American woman has a shot, it's her. Deena Kastor, who holds the American record in the marathon, is aging, and she's coming off a broken foot. Not that this will matter on race day, as she's not running the Boston Marathon, but I don't believe that her times will improve and that she'll be able to compete with future Boston fields.
Hall ran a 2:12 at the Olympic Marathon in Beijing, six minutes off his PR. Hall made the mistake of not taking off enough time between marathons. After PR'ing at the London Marathon in April 2008, he ran the Olympic Marathon four months later and choked. He hasn't run a marathon in more than six months, and it should show in Boston. I predict that he will run strongly and finish in the top three.
Ryan's predictions:
For the women: Dire Tune
For the men: Deriba Merga
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